Energy prices continue to shape market activity, affecting Swiss equities through macroeconomic channels and direct cost exposure. Escalation in the Middle East previously pushed the oil price repeatedly above the 110 dollar per barrel mark during the first half of the year, and after a relaxation in June, the price of oil climbed back above 100 dollars. Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee, noted at the end of the previous week that limited supply of oil products, extremely high logistics costs, and a high risk of escalation by Iran keep prices at an elevated level.
Transport disruptions further complicate the landscape. Jean-Frédéric Werren, Global Head of Equity at EFG, pointed out that freight rates for diesel transports on the Rhine to Basel reached a record 306.39 euros per ton on October 6. This development stems from critically low water levels at the bottleneck in Kaub, Germany, adding a logistical transport bottleneck to energy market pressures.
These energy market movements impact Swiss listed companies both by shifting broader economic conditions and through direct commodity exposure. Specialty chemicals firms Clariant and Ems-Chemie serve as direct examples. According to analyst estimates, energy costs at Clariant rose by 4 percent in the first half of the year and by 6 percent in the second quarter alone, with price increases only partially offsetting the impact. At Ems, tightening oil and gas supplies from the Middle East directly raised energy costs while industrial economic activity softened, as detailed in the SPI-listed company's half-year report. Management around CEO Magdalena Martullo-Blocher addressed the higher costs through selling price increases and by offering energy- and cost-saving solutions to customers, viewing these offerings as growth opportunities. Stephan Sola of Sola Capital includes both firms among those drawing heightened focus due to energy and raw material costs, noting that falling energy prices would conversely benefit them through cheaper energy and petrochemical feedstocks. Vetropack shares similar vulnerabilities, as energy-intensive glass production makes the Bülach-based company susceptible to rising energy costs, while lower costs provide relief in an easier market environment.
Broader Swiss Market Index (SMI) construction-related companies such as Amrize, Holcim, Geberit, and Sika hedge against higher raw material prices and pass costs to customers, but face macroeconomic pressure. Beat Pfiffner, analyst at Schwyzer Kantonalbank (SZKB), stated that dearer crude oil drives inflation, which provokes higher interest rates, makes residential construction more expensive, and burdens order volumes for construction-linked Swiss firms. Conversely, lower energy costs provide tailwinds, particularly for Holcim and Amrize through reduced production and transport expenses. Margins become especially interesting if costs fall faster than selling prices, though consumer willingness to accept elevated prices remains a variable. Implenia faces a different dynamic, as Pfiffner explained that the SPI company focuses on complex infrastructure projects less vulnerable to higher interest rates.
Tourism-related equities feel the pressure from jet fuel prices and shifting consumer habits. Flughafen Zürich experiences headwinds as higher kerosene costs make flying more expensive and impact passenger numbers, though consumer resilience varies across regions. Pfiffner observed that while domestic travelers delay holiday cancellations, traffic in regions like India declines noticeably, which impacts Flughafen Zürich's airport participations in South America and India. Travel retailer Avolta also suffers from traffic hub softness, with lower passenger counts reducing store revenues at airports as travelers prioritize flight costs over airport retail purchases.
Conversely, Burckhardt Compression and Sulzer could benefit over coming years if refinery capacities expand outside the Gulf region, driving demand for compressors and pumps, according to SZKB analyst Pfiffner. Meanwhile, ABB and R&S benefit from high energy prices raising incentives for electrification and energy efficiency, though these structural trends depend on digitalization, artificial intelligence, and data center demand rather than oil prices alone. Falling oil prices would signal a healthier general economy, providing standard cyclical tailwinds for industrial firms like ABB.
